Saturday, April 19, 2014

Orioles vs. Red Sox- Sunday Night Baseball 4-20




Orioles @ Red Sox
7:05 p.m.
ESPN

Jimenez (0-3, 7.31 ERA) vs. Peavy (0-0, 1.99 ERA)
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Tomorrow night the Orioles make their first appearance of the season on Sunday Night Baseball. The 3rd game of the 4 game series pins the O's newest yet struggling addition, Ubaldo Jimenez, against the solid and steady Jake Peavy. Jimenez has struggled keeping the ball in the park so far this season allowing 4 home runs in his 3 starts. Given that all 4 came in the hitter's Camden Yards, this is not a good sign for the $50 million dollar man. Jimenez has already faced the Red Sox this year allowing HRs to David Ortiz and Mike Napoli in the 6-2 defeat. Jimenez will need to keep the ball in the park to allow the Orioles to grab the win.
For the Sox, Jake Peavy has started off the season pretty well with not much to show for. His three no decisions and two losses in games started are not good signs that would show how well Peavy is pitching. Although he has allowed a home run in each game this season, in 2 of the 3 games, that was the only run he allowed. In addition, he only allowed 3 hits in both of those games.
The Orioles hitters will get to face a righty tomorrow which bodes well for them compared to the lefty Doubront. Pretty much everyone in the Orioles lineup hits righties better except for J.J. Hardy. Matt Wieters should be in the lineup tomorrow, as I see his off day coming on the Monday day game. Markakis was excellent against Doubront as was Nelson Cruz but the rest of the team combined 1-25 on the day. As we've seen the Orioles bats have gotten off to a slow start but I don't think there is much need to worry. As the temperature increases, Davis and Jones will start to pick up the slack and the return of Machado will provide a huge boost. The 3 players with a decent sample size against Peavy are J.J. Hardy, Delmon Young, and Nick Markakis.
J.J. Hardy: 1-17, 4 SO
Delmon Young: 3-13, 1 HR
Nick Markakis: 3-8. 1 BB
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As you can see from the players with the biggest sample sizes, Markakis is the only player with true success against Peavy, batting .375. It will be interesting if Buck considers giving Hardy the day off with his putrid stats against Peavy. Nonetheless, we will see if the O's bats can get something started against the tough Peavy.
Dustin Pedroia and David Ortiz absolutely demolish the Orioles. Although a majority of those at-bats came when the Orioles were in the midst of a 16 year losing streak, Pedroia and Ortiz come to play against the Birds. Pedroia tagged the O's for 4 hits against Jimenez 2 and a half weeks ago while Papi did the more recent damage against Norris with a Home Run. The Red Sox feed off of Pedroia's energy and Ortiz's power so seeing Jimenez shut those two down would be huge for the Orioles. The most notable Red Sox hitters against Jimenez are as follows; Dustin Pedroia, Mike Napoli, Johnny Gomes
Dustin Pedroia: 7-13, 4 RBI
Mike Napoli: 4-7, 2 HR
Johnny Gomes: 5-15, 2 HR
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While this is Jimenez's first year with the Birds, he has faced the Red Sox hitters before once again struggling with the long ball. Not to mention Pedroia has burned him. A good sign for Ubaldo is that he has limited Ortiz to a 1 for 7 career. This locks down half of the key to the game. Overall, the Red Sox lineup is not as frightening as it was last year when they captured the World Series but it is a solid lineup as we saw today the 7 hitter Brock Holt hit a go-ahead triple.
Prediction: Red Sox 6 Orioles 4
As hard as it is to predict the Sox to win this game, I simply don't think Jimenez will be able to keep the ball in the park nor shut down Pedroia. While the O's should produce a few runs, it simply won't be enough to take game 3 of this series.

Thursday, April 17, 2014

Contenders, Pretenders, and Sleepers for the 2014 NBA Playoffs

The NBA is a league where in the playoffs the better teams wins most of the time. So the low-seeded upsets we all love in the NCAA are far and few between around this time of year. This makes it easier to pick the Contenders but definitely proposes a difficult choice as to who the Pretenders and hardest of all the Sleepers are of the NBA playoffs.

Contenders- Excellent chance of at least reaching the Conference Finals
Pretenders- Slim chances of making it much further than the 2nd round
Sleeper-Potential to make a deep run

Miami Heat

How can you not pick the back-back defending World Champions led by the 2nd best player in the world. Yeah, I said it. LeBron James has officially lost his title as best player in the world. I know that LeBron will turn on the switch for the playoffs and show us all why he's truly the best in the world but as of now that honor goes to Kevin Durant. If you didn't know, the Heat's playoff success correlates to the health and good play of Dwyane Wade. But would I be crazy to say that the Heat's x-factor is actually one of the other role players for Miami. Ranging from starter Chris Bosh all the way to the Birdman or the return of Greg Oden. The Heat are a bunch of veterans with playoff experience who should have no problem breezing through the soft Eastern Conference. In fact, Charlotte probably poses the toughest threat for the Heat. Call me crazy but the Heat struggle mightily against big men and this is exactly what the Bobcats have in Al Jefferson. I think the Heat win the series 4-2 and advance to the easier of the 2nd round matchup against the Raptors. From there they get either the slumping Pacers or the anemic offense of the Bulls. It appears that Miami is heading back to the Finals.

San Antonio Spurs 

The Spurs are such a boring team to watch. They out coach you, wear you down, and then just flat out beat whoever they're playing. They are good every year and somehow when Kawhi Leonard and Danny Green both go down with injury they don't blink an eye on their way to best record in the league. Meanwhile, they sit Tony Parker, Manu Ginobli, and Tim Duncan throughout the season while calmly posting a 38-14 conference record. They even lucked out with the 1st round matchup against the Mavericks. This will take less of a toll on them than the gritty Memphis team that the #2 seeded Thunder will face. In the next round, the Spurs would get a matchup with either the Trail Blazers or Rockets, two teams that prefer not to play defense. A formula that we've seen not work in the playoffs year after year. Their is no doubt that the Thunder will be the toughest matchup for the Spurs as San Antonio was 0-4 vs. OKC this season.

Oklahoma City Thunder
I know I just picked the 3 favorites to win the title as my contenders. But that's the way it is in the NBA. The best teams just tend to win the games because unlike the NCAA tournament's one win and you move on, the teams must win 4 of 7 games, a system in which the better teams usually wins out. The Thunder will have the hardest road to the NBA Finals though. They get no reward for finishing 2nd in the West. OKC will have to match up with a Grizzlies team that finished 7th in the West because of injuries. With Gasol and Randolph at full strength, this Memphis team is more of a 4 or 5 seed. Don't forget that Memphis went to the Western Conference Finals last season. I believe OKC wins in 6 or 7 which could wear them down throughout the playoffs while the other contenders are looking at sweeps or 5 game series. OKC then would most likely see a face off with a Clippers team who was fighting with OKC for that 2 seed until the last game of the season. It is crazy to think that with all the publicity the Thunder got this season, they could have been a 3 seed entering the playoffs. The first 2 rounds for the Thunder could theoretically be tougher than a Western Conference Final with the Spurs whom they've owned so far this year. But I'm not going to say that facing the best team in the league is easier than playing anyone else. We all know how good KD is. The success of the Thunder relies on Westbrook's willingness to share the ball as well as the play of the big men. Serge Ibaka has been struggling this season while Kendrick Perkins has been a nightmare. If the OKC big men rise to the occasion, I believe the Thunder will be World Champions.

Pretenders

Indiana Pacers 

The Pacers could not have started the year any better nor could they have finished it any worse. It is crazy to think that the #1 seed in the East could be considered a Pretender but the way Indiana is playing it makes sense. The key to the Pacers deep run last season was the excellent play of Roy Hibbert who this season has been virtually non-existent. Throw in the fact that Lance Stephenson has been taking late game shots instead of Indiana's best player Paul George and you have a recipe for disaster. Fortunately for the Pacers they play in the East so they should be able to advance through the 1st round but I would not be surprised if Chicago beat them in the 2nd round.

Portland Trail Blazers/ Houston Rockets 

The Trail Blazers and Rockets get grouped into the Pretender category together because of their 1st round matchup. While one team has to advance, I believe whoever that may be will lose in 5 games to the Spurs. The Trail Blazers burst out of the gates this year similar to the Pacers only to realize that it's a marathon not a sprint. They have an unbelievable young core and with a good offseason could be considered a Contender next season. For the Rockets, it all boils down to Dwight Howard. Ever since his departure from Orlando, he has been a different player. In addition, he is always hobbled with injuries. James Harden is an excellent player but he isn't good enough to carry the Rockets past a deep Spurs team especially with the under performance of Chandler Parsons.

Sleeper

Chicago Bulls 

My sleeper comes from the East by way of the Chicago Bulls. The two things that frighten me bout Chicago is there lack of scorer without Derrick Rose but more importantly the heart/hustle aspect of the playoffs. To touch on the latter, The Bulls play with unmatched passion and intensity throughout the Regular Season. But as we so often hear about teams like the Heat is the ability to turn on the switch in the playoffs. My question is, is the switch already on for Chicago? Can the Bulls take it up a notch? It is hard to imagine they can but I'm never going to doubt Joakim Noah nor coach Tom Thibodeau. Joakim Noah played like an MVP this season and a team with a spectacular defense always has a chance in the playoffs. Add in the fact that they get the Pacers rather than the Heat in the 2nd round. The Bulls inability to score at times could be problematic but they definitely have the pieces to at least reach the ECF or potentially make it all the way to the Finals.

Monday, April 7, 2014

NCAA Championship Preview

#7 Connecticut Huskies vs. #8 Kentucky Wildcats














CBS 9:10 ET

These two basketball power houses came into the tournament ranked much lower than their former experiences but they both have found the same success as their prior teams. Neither one of these teams was even in the tournament last year but now they find themselves playing for the National Championship. This article will give you everything you need to know about the game tonight as well as a prediction of the winner.

UCONN
Starting Lineup
Shabazz Napier-G
Ryan Boatright-G
Niels Giffey-G/F
DeAndre Daniels-F
Phillip Nolan-F

Other important players:
Amida Brimah-F
Tyler Olander-F
Terrance Samuel-G
Lasan Kromah-G

The Huskies are coached by Kevin Ollie who brings an incredible amount of NBA experience and techniques to this Uconn team. 

Starting from the top is the Huskies best player in Shabazz Napier. He is a do it all guard who can rebound the ball, pass very well, but most importantly score the ball. If this game comes down to a last shot situation, expect the ball to be in the senior's hands. His backcourt mate is Ryan Boatright, a junior. Boatright compliments Napier perfectly as he is a strong defender who can pick up the scoring slack if need be. Boatright doesn't do anything special but he is one of the most consistent players in the NCAA. Boatright and Napier show how much the NCAA has transformed from years past. The deadly two guard combination is what has carried the Huskies to the championship game and will be a mold for future teams looking to find success in the tournament. Niels Giffey is an international player who is a great three point shooter. With solid size, defenders must respect Giffey's ability to drive but his end game is shooting the perimeter shot. He opens up driving lanes for all the Connecticut players. DeAndre Daniels is the MVP of the tournament for the Huskies. While UCONN would be nothing without Napier, Daniels has elevated his game to a whole new level. Daniels scored 20 points and snagged 10 rebounds in a game where Napier really struggled to get it going. Daniels ability to stretch the floor, similar to that of Giffey, also opens up driving lanes. Daniels hit two huge threes in their Final Four matchup with Florida that completely changed a game that could have gotten away from them. The fifth starter is big man, Phillip Nolan. Nolan only averages around 20 minutes per game and is a defensive specialist.


The other important players for the Huskies are most notably the cavalry of Olander, Brimah, and Nolan. While Nolan starts, it really depends on the flow of the game and more importantly foul trouble. The UCONN bigs have no trouble spending their fouls. Brimah and Nolan both had 4 fouls in a combined 27 minutes and Olander grabbed 2 fouls in 5 minutes. Brimah is the most talented of the three but he struggles to stay on the floor. Kentucky's bigs should be able to get the UCONN big men in foul trouble but this doesn't usually affect Connecticut as they'll just throw in one of the 3 without foul trouble. Lasan Kromah is the Huskies guard defensive specialist as he is excellent at reading passing lanes and coming up with steals. The final man that the Huskies use and who will probably get a lot of run again tonight is Terrance Samuel. Samuel becomes the 3rd guard when Coach Kevin Ollie decides to go small. This was the effective strategy that he utilized against Florida and will probably be the similar strategy tonight against Kentucky's three guard lineup. Samuel is an average player who takes care of the ball and helps the team win.

Kentucky
Starting Lineup
Aaron Harrison-G
Andrew Harrison-G
James Young-G
Julius Randle-F
Dakari Johnson-F

Other important players:
Alex Poythress-F
Marcus Lee-F
Dominique Hawkins-G

The Wildcats are coached by John Calipari arguably the best recruiter in the country who profiles as a solid coach. Calipari won the National Championship two years ago at Kentucky and lost to Kansas back in 2008 in heartbreaking fashion.

The Wildcats starting five is all Freshmen, the first team to do so since Michgan's Fab Five. Aaron Harrison. My oh my. This kid has hit game winning 3 pointers in their past 3 games. The most recently coming against Wisconsin a mere two days ago. Harrison, not known as a great 3 point shooter, has come up huge for the Wildcats and has carried them in clutch situations. Kentucky while being ranked as the #8 seed probably should not have been overlooked. They were the pre-season #1 and have grown incredibly over the season. This includes Aaron's brother, Andrew. Both brothers use their extra size for a Guard to overpower and overmatch the backcourt counterparts. They use their size to get in the lane and make shots over their shorter defenders. Their 3rd backcourt mate is James Young. A slashing 3 point shooter who is not afraid to let it rip from outside but also isn't afraid to put it on the deck and drive to his left hand. Young probably profiles as the most "freshmen" out of the 5 starters as he can become erratic at times but nonetheless he is a great player. The Wildcats best player is their big man, Julius Randle. Randle, a projected top 5 pick, is a huge presence down low and his performance will most likely determine the game. On a night like tonight, Randle has the ability to go for 30 points. You will rarely see him take a layup with his right hand, his weak hand, but he is so strong that it doesn't even matter. To round out the starting lineup is Dakari Johnson who is filling in for the injured Willy Cauley-Stein. Cauley-Stein hurt his ankle a couple games ago and will not be playing in the Title Game. Dakari Johnson brings his 7 foot body and decent rebounding skills to the table. He can finish layups but besides that his offensive game is raw.

The other Wildcats that will have an impact on this game are Marcus Lee, Alex Poythress, and Dominique Hawkins. Hawkins is a defensive guard who will play spotty minutes to give one of the Harrisons or James Young a break. He is relied on to not turn the ball over and play defense. Hawkins will most likely find himself matched up against Boatright or Napier for a few minutes at a time. Moving on to Dakari Johnson's replacement, Marcus Lee. Marcus Lee wasn't seeing any time on the court a few weeks ago. Now he has become the greatest put back dunker in the game. A bit of hyperbole but all joking aside Lee has become a presence on both ends of the court. He cleans up the boards and is excellent at protecting the rim. In 10-15 minutes, Lee can have a huge presence in this game. Finally, the Wildcats 6th man. Alex Poythress was a highly touted Freshman coming out of High school 2 years ago. Unfortunately, he did not turn out as great as projected but he has come back with a great attitude as a Sophomore and has been invaluable for Kentucky. Poythress actually injured his knee in the post game celebration following the victory over Wisconsin but will be fine to play. Poythress is another important factor in this ball game.

X-Factor
Julius Randle vs. DeAndre Daniels
While I cannot exactly predict how both coaches will approach this matchup, I can try and predict how important this matchup will turn out. Not to confuse anyone, Randle is far and away a better player than Daniels. But in this matchup we are looking at who has more success in terms of expectations. Randle must play like Kentucky's best player tonight while Daniels must limit Randle as best he can. The fun in this matchup is the two's opposing style of game. Randle likes to bang down low while Daniels is an effective 3 point shooter. This leaves the question for both coaches as how to defend each player. Will Kevin Ollie put Daniels on the bigger Dakari Johnson and place his big men on Randle or will he let Daniels guard Randle straight up. The same goes for Calipari. Will he let the quicker Daniels exploit Randle on the wing or have Alex Poythress play the majority of the minutes as he is a better matchup for Daniels. This 2nd option would put Kentucky in a size disadvantage down low. Whatever the coaches choose to do, the performances of these two players will determine the game.

Prediction
UCONN-68
Kentucky-64

I believe the senior presence of Napier and the experience of Boatright will be too much to handle for the Kentucky guards. In my x-factor matchup, I think Daniels will continue his incredible tournament run and propel the Huskies to the 2014 National Championship.