Monday, April 1, 2013

The Final Four is set! Early predictions

The extended tournament weekend started out excellent with another Ohio State buzzer beater, Syracuse's stifling defense taking down Number 1 Indiana, and Trey Burke and Michigan's improbable comeback. If you missed any of those games you truly missed out because the Regional Finals were a bit of a disappointment. I'll explain below.

Louisville vs. Duke
Louisville celebrating their Final Four berth. Pay tribute to teammate Kevin Ware.
Probably the most compelling Regional Final matchup in the past decade. Coach K against Pitino, Louisville vs Duke two perennial power houses, Siva and Smith against Seth Curry and his team of sharp shooters. The game started off with great energy but then it went all down hill after Kevin Ware's injury. If you didn't see this you don't want to. Ware suffered a compound fracture in his leg on an attempted blocked shot. Thankfully his surgery was successful and he has made the trip to Atlanta to be with the team. After the injury, Louisville went on to dominate the 2nd half and won the game by 23 points. Great game on paper, not so much on the court.

Michigan vs. Florida

Nik Stauskas after one of his 6 three pointers.
If your a Michigan fan like myself, you actually enjoyed watching the Wolverines beat down on Florida. But for the rest of the nation, this was just another blowout in the Elite 8. Michigan got off to a 13-0 start and never looked back. The Gators once again fell in the Elite 8 and can't seem to get over the hump since their Titles in '05 and '06. Trey Burke earned POY honors on Friday against Kansas thanks to his domination in the 2nd half as Canadian Nik Stauskas stole the show on Sunday in a punishing performance against Florida.

Syracuse vs. Marquette
Syracuse celebrating their first Final Four berth since 2003
when they won it all with Freshman Carmelo Anthony
If your an old-timer you probably enjoyed this game. Syracuse's 2-3 zone defense embarrassed Marquette on Thursday night. Being in the Big East, you would expect the Golden Eagles to have some sort of clue of how to perform against the zone but they showed no signs of that. They were terrible shooting 28% from the field. To show their offensive struggles note that the Golden Eagles accounted for 39 points in the game while Michigan put up 47 in the first half. Marquette bad, Syracuse good.

Wichita State vs. Ohio State

In what was probably the most exciting game of the Elite 8, Wichita State continued their run as Cinderella. Leading by 20 points at one point, the Shockers almost gave the game away. The Buckeyes got back in the game by pressuring an inexperienced Wichita squad. At one point, the Shockers went 14 possessions with only 1 Field Goal. With about 3 minutes to go, OSU had cut the lead to 3 when, and this bothers me, they called off the pressure. Ohio State had cut the lead down by 17 points with constant pressure but when they finally made it one possession they stop pressuring. This let the Shockers who two enormous shot. One by Teleke Cotton a clutch 3 and then a fall away jumper by the Freshman VanVleet which closed the game for the Shockers. I think Ohio State is going to regret those last 3 minutes as they were a great matchup with Louisville. 

Now, here is my analysis of the Final Four games and my predictions.

The early game tips off at 6:09 ET between Louisville and Wichita State.
Peyton Siva (left) and Russ Smith (right) are the most dominant
duo in the entire nation right now.
While many people though Ohio state would blow out Wichita State, myself included, I honestly believe this is an extremely lopsided matchup. If you read above, which I hope you did, Wichita State started to turn the ball over when they faced some defensive pressure. Now look what they have ahead of them. Besides maybe VCU, Louisville is the best defensive team at forcing turnovers. They also have the ability to speed you up and play their up tempo style of Basketball. Louisville will cruise to the Title game with Kevin Ware heavy in their hearts.
Louisville 78
Wichita State 65

Now for the more intriguing game. Syracuse's 2-3 zone vs. Michigan's sharp shooters.
Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. led the Wolverines to their
first Final Four berth since the Fab 5 in 1993.
If you remember back to midway through the College Basketball season both these teams at one point reigned atop the College Basketball world. While both teams struggled, Michigan deemed too young and Syracuse struggled offensively, both these squads should not have been surprising picks. For Michigan it's the emergence of Freshman Mitch McGary who gives the Wolverines an inside presence and for Syracuse it's the stifling 2-3 zone. The Cuse' defense has caused more turnovers than they've allowed field goals, that stat tells a lot. With that being said, Michigan matches up very well with the Cuse. Michigan poses outside threats Trey Burke, Tim Hardaway Jr., and Nik Stauskas. If the Wolverines are hot from beyond the arc, Syracuse has absolutely no chance. Yet, if they are not, Syracuse has a great chance of advancing to a rematch of the Big East Championship game. This Syracuse team is more physical than Michigan and poses a ton of matchup problems. Almost every player in the Syracuse starting line up will be a few inches taller than their respective Michigan matchup. The key to this game will be whether Michigan shoots well from outside or whether Syracuse controls the game down low. I give the edge to the Wolverines but not by much.
Michigan 60
Syracuse 58

My title game pick will come later in the week, so keep checking back!!

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