NFL Divisional Round Saturday Predictions

New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks: 4:25 p.m. Saturday

       In a clash of opposites, Drew Brees and company will travel cross country to face what seems to be an unbeatable Russell Wilson at Century Link field. I'm sure everyone knows how good the 'Hawks are at home evident by Wilson's lone career loss at home coming a few short weeks ago. While this may seem promising for the visiting Saints, I don't think they should read too much into it.

       Week 13 this season marks the last time these teams met and it was very ugly for New Orleans. They were blown out 34-7 as Drew Bree's road struggles continued. On the road this season, Drew Brees has completed 10% less of his passes compared to at the SuperDome. He's thrown for 500 less yards with 28 more pass attempts. The most telling stat is his 27 touchdowns at home compared to 12 on the road while totaling 9 interceptions away from home while just three in New Orleans. This is a scary stat for New Orleans fans who are hoping their team can take down the king of the NFC.

        Although Brees managed to get over his road woes in the playoffs last week against the Eagles, he will be facing a much tougher defense this weekend. That augmented to the fact that the 'Hawks have a very efficient offense is what will prove too much this weekend. Marshawn Lynch will control the game against a mediocre run defense. While the Saints will limit Seattle through the air, it won't be enough to hold Seattle from advancing to the Championship Game.

                                                   

                                                                                              X-Factor: Jimmy Graham 

     While this pick may seem obvious, the x-factor is in fact obvious. The Saints best chance of staying in/winning this game is Jimmy Graham having his biggest game of the year. This is a lot to ask because Graham has already had a 10 catch, 179 yard, and a touchdown performance this season.

Final Score: Seahawks-30 Saints-17




Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots: 8:10 p.m. Saturday

     Andrew Luck and the Colts needed a spectacular comeback last week to escape the Chiefs and are granted with a trip to a cold New England. This matchup pairs the Future of the NFL versus the face of the league for the past decade. You can't ask for much more than Brady versus Luck but this game will actually be decided on the other side of the ball.

   
The Colts own a bottom 5 rush defense but fortunately for them the Patriots have serious troubles rushing the ball. On the contrary though, the Patriots may be on to something. In the regular season finale, LeGarrette Blount ran for 189 yards and 2 scores on the Patriots' way to a 14 point win over the Bills. With the loss of Gronk many people thought New England's season was over but there is a chance that the Pats have new hope. No matter how much the NFL leans towards the Quarterback, the Super Bowl Champion seems to always represent the team that got production from their running game and defense. This screams Patriots for me. With a shaky defense and a struggling offense all season it seems to be coming around for Brady and Co.

X-Factor: Griff Whalen/Da'rick Rogers

     You are probably saying who? Indy came into the season with their Wide Receiver depth chart as such. 1. Reggie Wayne 2. TY Hilton 3. Darius Heyward-Bey
      Well things have clearly changed with the injury from Wayne and lack of production from DHB. Whalen and Rogers sport the 2 and 3 slots for the Colts. If you know anything about football, you know that Belichick will shut down TY Hilton who had a monster week against the Chiefs. Coverage will lean towards Hilton and all types of schemes will focus on shutting him down. While this may seem problematic, this does open up opportunities for the 2 and 3. Therefore, Whalen and Rogers production will determine the outcome of the game.

Final Score: Patriots-34 Colts-27

Seattle Seahawks vs. Atlanta Falcons Prediciton

Headline: The #5 seed, Seattle Seahawks travel to the Georgia Dome to face the top-seeded Atlanta Falcons.

Seattle Seahawks:
The surprise of the year is Russell Wilson, and even though I don't think he will win Rookie of the Year because voting occurred before the playoffs, he has a chance to advance to the NFC Championship game Sunday. The Seahawks will be without team sack leader, Chris Clemons but will have top corners Brandon Browner and Richard Sherman. These players will be part of the best matchup of the Divisional Round. Browner and Sherman will be lined up against stud Wide Receivers, Roddy White and Julio Jones. The winner of this matchup will win this game and even though I'm leaning towards the corners, I think the home field advantage will mightily help the Falcons.

Atlanta Falcons:
Now for the top seed. If Atlanta does not win this game, Matt Ryan will fall into the category of choker or "can't get it done". Matt Ryan has been excellent making the playoffs 4 out of his first 5 years in the league but he has yet to win a playoff game. Matty "Ice" will have to shut up all the critics and win this game. I am a fan of Matt Ryan and I think the key to their victory will be Mike Turner and Jacquizz Rodgers' success against the front 7 of Seattle. If they can run the ball successfully, that will open up space for the Julio and Roddy against the pro-bowl corners.

Prediction:
I think this game will be tight throughout and it will take a Matt Ryan to Tony Gonzalez connection to push Atlanta to a matchup with San Francisco next weekend.
Final Score:
Atlanta-31
Seattle-27

Line:
Atlanta -3

Over/Under: 
47.5

Rookie of the Year Debate-Sportacular Sports

Rookie of the Year Debate
Andrew Luck    Robert Griffin III   Russell Wilson

Honorable Mentions:Alfred Morris, Doug Martin, Matt Kalil

Point System
I will grade the rookies by their statistical categories with each category maxing out at 3 points. Each player will be graded on statistical categories in addition to what I feel makes a ROY.

The Rookie of the Year is similar to MVP and is usually graded upon the same guidelines but it is not the Most Valuable Player yet it is the best Rookie in the league regardless of team performance. Although not one of the 3 rookie's teams made the playoffs last season, Indianapolis posted a 2-14 record. Therefore, if this award was based off of value to a team, the award would go to Luck for turning them into a playoff team. But, the distinction leaves the chance for RGIII and Wilson to still win the award. Now lets look at the candidates.

Andrew Luck-Indianapolis Colts
11-5
5th seed in the AFC
Broke Cam Newton's rookie record for passing yards with 4,374 yards.
Colts 2011 (2-14) --->Colts 2012 (11-5)

Robert Griffin III- Washington Redskins
10-6
4th seed in the NFC
Won NFC East
Selected to the Pro Bowl
Redskins 2011  (6-10)--->Redskins 2011 (10-6)
Redskins first division title in 9 years.

Russels Wilson-Seattle Seahawks
11-5
3rd round draft pick
5th seed in the NFC
Seattle 2011 (7-9)--->Seattle 2012 (11-5)


Wilson won Offensive Rookie of the Month in December ending the season on a hot streak. Wilson along with Golden Tate, will infamously be known for their Hail-Mary pass against Green Bay that forced the NFL to get rid of the replacement officials.

Passer Rating

The most important statistic to look at when comparing these 3 quarterbacks is passer rating. Passer rating is "a measure of the performance of quarterbacks or any other passers". As you can see above, Griffin led with his mark of 102.4 with Wilson trailing at an even mark of 100. Because passer rating is "calculated using each quarterback's completion percentage, passing yardage, touchdowns and interceptions", Luck's large deficit of 76.5 is a crucial number to pay attention to.

Griffin-3

Wilson-2

Luck-1

Total Yards (Passing and Rushing)

Next we will look at the offensive yardage output that the candidates produced. Andrew Luck threw for more than a 1,000 yards than both Griffin and Wilson but they are known for their dual threat capabilities. Griffin rushed for 815 yards, 326 more yards than Wilson and 560 more yards than Luck. Griffin clearly wins the rushing dual as Wilson does not gain much ground on Luck. A Quarterback's ability to move the ball down the field is what these guys are payed for. Wilson had the aid with an experienced Marshawn Lynch. While RG3 did have Alfred Morris, it was more Griffin's abilities that opened up things for Morris than Lynch's abilities that gave space and time for Wilson. 

Luck-2
Griffin-2
Wilson-1

Total Touchdowns

Another obvious number to analyze would be Touchdowns. This is the number that might surprise you. Not Luck nor Griffin but Russell Wilson tied Peyton Manning's rookie record for passing touchdowns. Luck trailed by only 3 and RGIII had 20 himself. A tough decision in this process is weighing Griffin and Wilson's legs against just Luck's arm. I believe a passing touchdown and rushing touchdown count for the same amount of points, therefore, I will weigh them evenly. Griffin led all runners with 7 touchdowns while Andrew Luck actually beat Wilson with 5 compared to his 4.

Total Touchdowns
Wilson-30
Luck-28
Griffin-27

Wilson-3
Luck-2
Griffin-2

We now have two remaining statistics to look at. First we will begin with completion percentage. I believe this does measure the quarterback's performance but not on as large a scale as the other numbers. The candidates will only receive half the point value they gain.

Completion Percentage

RgIII and Wilson both completed about 65% of their passes while Luck completed only 54%. The 65% numbers are good enough but a 54% number is not high enough. This stat won't create a large gap but I don't like this number for Luck.

Wilson-3/2=1.5

Griffin-3/2=1.5

Luck-1/2=.5

Total Turnovers (Interceptions and Fumbles)
The final numbers statistic that we will look at is the amount of turnovers that each candidates committed. Andrew Luck led all 3 rookies with 18 interceptions and not to mention 9 lost fumbles. That is a loss of 27 possessions for Indianapolis. Russell Wilson only totaled 14 turnovers including 10 picks. One of the main problems with rookies in the league is decision making. The reason Griffin owns this category is his ability to take care of the football. Griffin only threw 5 interceptions. Which not only was lowest by rookies but also by the top NFL starters. Including his 5 lost fumbles, Griffin totaled only 10 lost possessions.

Griffin-3
Wilson-1
Luck-0

After pure statistics, the count is.
Griffin-11.5
Wilson-8.5
Luck-5.5

The Rookie of the Year will be decided 90% on statistics and from my experience, the other 10% comes from a popularity standpoint. I definitely do not want to take credit away from Johnny Manziel but, for example, popularity aided Johnny "Football"'s Heisman run. In this case, popularity belongs to RG3, who took the world by surprise and became the most known QB on the planet. ESPN's phase of Tim Tebow shortly became Robert Griffin 3rd. I'm convinced RGIII's popularity will push him to the top, but will he win?

Before I crown "my" Offensive Rookie of the Year, I would like to point out Cam Newton's stats from last season.

If you can just focus in on the 2011 statistics, the year Newton won the award, Luck's numbers besides the rushing would beat Newton's, Wilson's would almost match his, and Griffin's would surpass Newton. This was the best draft class of the decade and unfortunately for two men, they will not win the award they would have received in any other year.

If you have been following my words, you can guess who I have as Sportacular Sport's Rookie of the Year. This has been an excellent season and I cannot wait for the 3 rooks to play in the playoffs. I'll honor Russell Wilson as the best steal of the draft. In addition, if this was an MVP race, Luck would win. Unfortunately it is not, and Sportacular Sport's Rookie of the Year is....

Robert Griffin III